New data from NPD suggests Apple is going to beat expectations for Mac sales when it reports earnings on Wednesday, says Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster.
He just put out a note with the NPD data. Here are his bullet points:
- Mac NPD Growth Accelerates Based On New MacBook Pros. For the month of March, Mac NPD was up 47% y/y driven by new MacBook Pros that started shipping on 2/24. Mac NPD growth was 20% y/y in the month of Jan-11, 12% y/y in the month of Feb-11, and 47% y/y in the month of Mar-11, resulting in March quarter growth of 27% y/y.
- NPD Retail Data Suggests 3.6m-3.7m Macs In March Qtr. We have analysed domestic NPD retail data for all 3 months of the March quarter, which is up 27% y/y. The data is tracking at the high end of our range Mac number of 3.6m-3.7m, or 22%-26% y/y growth (we believe Street consensus is about 3.6m Macs in the quarter and we are also at 3.6m). We note that the refreshed MacBook Pros that launched at the end of Feb. (2/24) drove an acceleration in the final month of the quarter (see above). We also note that we estimate that Mac revenue will represent just 21% of overall revenue in CY11.
- iPod NPD Data Suggests Units Of 9.8m-10.3m For March Qtr. Our analysis of domestic iPod unit data from NPD through all three months of the March quarter (down 10% y/y, in-line with our expected range for NPD of down 5% to 10%) leads us to an iPod approximation of 9.8m-10.3m (we believe the Street is at ~10.0m). This range implies y/y iPod unit growth of -10% to -5% y/y vs. the Street at about -8% y/y. iPod units were down 10% y/y through all three months of the March quarter tracking in-line with Street consensus (factoring in faster international iPod sales). We note that international iPod sales are a larger mix than international Mac sales, resulting in a slightly greater margin of error from domestic NPD data.
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