Almost every day since the the bull market began in March 2009, some stock market pundit has complained about low trading volumes.
Some fear that low volume means sell-offs could turn sharp due to lack of liquidity.
However, Charles Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders points us to this interesting counterintuitive chart from the Bespoke Investment Group.
“The chart breaks out performance the current bull market based on days when volume (using the SPY exchange-traded fund as a proxy) has been above and below its 50-day moving average,” explained Sonders.
“On a cumulative basis, the S&P would be up nearly 300% if you were only invested on the days when volume was below average,” she added. “That’s nearly double the return of the entire bull market! On the other hand, if you were only invested when volume was above average, you would actually be down 37%. Complain if you’d like, but gains are preferred over volume, no?”
“Market bears seem never to be short reasons for gloom; but valuation and volume shouldn’t be among them,” she said.