When the NBA playoffs begin in three weeks, there will be 16 teams competing to be crowned NBA Champions. But in reality there are only a handful of teams with a legit shot to win it all, and of those, two teams are overwhelming favourites.
According to Nate Silver’s model at Five Thirty Eight, in which the rest of the season is simulated thousands of times, the Warriors have almost a 50-50 chance to win the title. More importantly, there is a 68% chance that the champions of the NBA this season will either be the Warriors or the Spurs and not a single playoff game has been played yet.
In all, only five teams have at least a 1-in-20 shot at the title (≥5% probability). In addition to the Warriors and the Spurs, the Celtics, Rockets, and Cavaliers are barely above the threshold with each given a 5% or 6% chance to win the title.
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