The Economic Cycles Research Institute famously called for a recession last September 30, when the stock market was near its depths, Europe was on the ropes, US economic data was looking poor, and big domestic banks were getting shellacked, just like in the dark days of 2008.
ECRI based its call on its own proprietary leading index.
But that call hasn’t come to fruition yet, and with many parts of the economy continuing to improve, its hard to envision a recession happening anytime soon.
Nevertheless, ECRI’s chief Lakshman Achuthan insists a recession is on its way, and that we’ll know about it by late Summer/early Fall.
But look what’s happening with the ECRI index.
Per this chart from Doug Short, the index has now improved for 8 straight weeks, and it’s really not that far from going positive.
If it does go positive, Achuthan is definitely going to have some explaining to do.
Photo: Doug Short