Laurie Goodman On Why Another 11 Million Mortgages Will Go Bad

A major bear on the housing market, Amherst Securities’ Laurie Goodman has predicted since 2009 another housing crash as banks are forced to liquidate tons of bad loans.

Up to 11 million mortgages are likely to default, according to Goodman. This is a frightening figure, seeing as only several million have been liquidated since the crisis began. When it happens, the market will be flooded with supply.

Goodman reached 11 million by projecting default rates for non-performing loans, re-performing loans, and underwater loans. Here’s a slide from a recent presentation (via The Atlantic):


Meanwhile banks are refraining from liquidations in hope that bad loans turn good. Thus the shadow inventory keeps growing:



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