Photo: AP/Petros Giannakouris
Last week we pointed out that markets were paying close attention to polling data in Greece.Basically, any polls showing a lead for the left wing SYRIZA coalition were depressing markets, and any polls showing strength for the pro-bailout New Democracy party were being greeted positively.
In light of that, it’s pretty clear that the majority of polls (which we’ve been tracking via the tireless Greek journalist on Efthimia Emthimiou on Twitter) are showing a lead for New Democracy.
They’re not huge leads, but they don’t necessarily heave to be. If New Democracy gets first place even by a hair, they get 50 extra seats in parliament (per the rules) and if New Democracy and PASOK can combine to get about 37% of the vote (up from their combined 31% last time), they should be able to cobble together a pre-bailout coalition.
The election isn’t until June 17, and a lot could still affect the outcome (such as the fallout from that Christine Lagarde interview) but at this moment, things are pointing in a direction that the market likes.