BREXIT: Latest poll gives 'Remain' campaign slight lead

A new poll published by BMG and The London Evening Standard shows the campaign for Britain to remain in the EU is currently winning.

The poll gives ‘Remain’ the lead with 44% — while 41% intend to vote for Britain to quit the 28-nation bloc.

The remaining 15% of the 1,517 respondents are yet to make up their mind on how they will vote on June 23.

The research, which was commissioned during David Cameron’s negotiations with EU leaders in Brussels last week, also indicate a clear majority do not believe Cameron’s deal will be implemented in full by the EU.

Overall, 57% of people surveyed said they did not trust the EU to adopt the deal in full.

On both sides of the debate, confidence in EU leaders to adhere to Cameron’s much-vaunted deal is low.

The overwhelming majority of those wishing to leave the EU (86%) believe European leaders will break promises on the deal once the June referendum is over. In the ‘Remain’ camp a sizable minority (34%) also fear EU leaders will renege on the terms of the agreement.

Unsurprisingly, UKIP members are highly likely to vote for Britain to leave the EU (87%) while a large majority (78%) of Liberal Democrats plan to vote to stay.

Given how the Conservative Party is being divided over the EU referendum, with Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, both close friends of the PM, supporting a Brexit, the voting intentions of Conservative supporters are equally split.

‘Leave’ (51%) and ‘Remain’ (39%) campaigns each enjoy considerable support from Tories. In Labour, 64% of members say they will vote for the country to stay in the EU. It should be noted the poll was conducted before notable MPs like Johnson and Gove chose to campaign for a Brexit so it is not yet clear what effect their split with the PM will have on voters’ intentions.

The findings in full can be found here.

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