Over the weekend, Barry Ritholtz sat down with Wall Street legend Laszlo Birinyi for his Masters in Business program on Bloomberg Radio.
Among the topics addressed: the current bull market.
Birinyi defines bull markets in four stages: reluctance, acceptance, consolidation, and exuberance.
Currently, we’re in the exuberance phase.
But though the market is in what Birinyi sees as its final stage, we’re not done yet, as we haven’t gotten a real take-off, or what many in the market would call a “blow off top.”
Birinyi and Ritholtz’s conversation was recorded in early June, and at that point the S&P 500 had made 14 new highs in 2014, which Birinyi says wasn’t yet making front page news. They talk about the exuberance that surrounded the market in 1999 and 2000: when the Nasdaq was ripping to all-time highs, when Michael Lewis came out with his book “The New New Thing,” and everyone couldn’t stop talking about the stock market.
Birinyi says history would indicate that this is period coming.
“We’re still going to have that time when the public comes back, and the barista is going to ask what [stocks] you’re buying,” Birinyi said.
And for Birinyi, this lack of public participation and overwhelming press coverage means that the rally in stocks isn’t going anywhere just yet.
Birinyi’s take: “Leave the door open, and let the good times roll.“
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