ACHUTHAN: The Key Jobs Metric I Follow Has Dropped To A 19-Month Low

lakshman achutan ecriLakshman Achuthan

The stock markets are selling off in the wake of this morning’s disappointing jobs report.

While there were certainly some encouraging details in the report, there’s no question that the overall U.S. labour market continues to be anemic.

“Contrary to all the recent happy-talk, year-over-year jobs growth has been falling for a while,” said Lakshman Achuthan in an email to Business Insider. (Click here for his chart.)

Achuthan, the head of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, has long argued that the U.S. economy is in recession.

He notes that, year-over-year growth in nonfarm payrolls and household jobs have fallen to 19 and 18 month lows, respectively.

“The key issue is the pressure on income: people between 35 and 54, i.e., those in their prime earning years, have actually lost jobs since the start of the so-called jobs recovery,” he continued.

Indeed, income is becoming an increasingly worrisome metric as consumer spending appears to be bolstered by a falling savings rate. BlackRock’s Russ Koesterich even dubbed it the most important number right now.

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