Most countries will face labour shortages by 2030, according to a new report from the Boston Consulting Group.
BCG looked at 25 major economies around the world and found that by 2020 many countries will have a surplus, while by 2030 this will turn into a “massive shortfall.”
To understand what the shortfall means for the global economy, the authors of the report multiplied the labour gap figure for each country by labour productivity to get the “dollar value of GDP not created.”
“In the 20-year productivity scenario, we calculated $US10 trillion of lost GDP,” according to the report — which is about 10% of global GDP according to 2013 figures.
Three countries in particular stand out:
Brazil’s labour supply is projected to increase at 1.26% annual growth rate between 2012-2020 and 0.5% between 2020-2030. Yet. it is projected to have one of the biggest shortfalls. “Brazil will have a shortage of up to 8.5 million workers in 2020; by 2030, that figure could increase nearly fivefold to 40.9 million people.”
China is slated to have a labour surplus of 55.2 – 75.3 million workers in 2020, but that “could reverse sharply, turning into a shortage of up to 24.5 million people by 2030.” Between 2012-2020 housing is expected to rise at 0.05% annual growth rate, and contract 0.32% annually from 2020 to 2030.
Germany’s labour supply will actually shrink from 43 million now to 37 million in 2030. It’s labour supply is projected to contract at a 0.4% annually between 2012-2020 and contract 1.2% annually between 2020 and 2030.