“We are facing the largest macro imbalance in global history.”
That’s according to Kyle Bass, founder of hedge fund Hayman Capital Management.
Investors better prepare for a Chinese crisis that will mimic what happened in the US mortgage crisis, Bass said in an interview out Friday with Real Vision Television.
“When I look at what’s happening now in China, the amplitude of what’s happening is two, three or four times what happened in the US,” he said.
Here are Bass’ main points:
- The Chinese are going to have to accept a devaluation of the yuan.
- When the Chinese crisis hits, the Chinese are going to have to react similarly to the way central bankers did after the mortgage crisis.
- “They’re going to expand the PBOC’s [People’s Bank of China] balance sheet, they’re going to slash the reserve requirement, they’re going to drop the deposit rate to zero. They’re going to do everything the US did in our crisis,” he said.
- And it won’t look good. “Every single thing the Chinese central bank has to do is currency negative for them.”
- The takeaway? You better get ready. “In the next two years, this is happening. If you want to pretend that it’s not going to happen, you’re going to do poorly somewhere in your portfolio.”
Bass made his name betting big on the mortgage crisis, but his most recent investments have been less successful.
A big bet on the oil bust has contributed to a performance drop in Hayman’s main fund this year, while the firm’s assets have dwindled from $2.3 billion at the end of 2014 to around $770 million as of May, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report.