Now that the 16 spots in the knockout stage of the Women’s World Cup have been set, the number of teams with a realistic shot to win it all has dwindled to six, according to the latest model by Nate Silver.
The United States is the favourite with a 33% chance to win the World Cup. That’s up from their pre-tournament odds of 28%, when they were in a virtual tie with Germany. The Germans are down slightly from 27% to 25%. No other country has more than a 9% chance to lift the trophy.
When the tournament started, there were seven teams with at least a 5% chance of winning the tournament. Now there are just six (FIFA ranking in parentheses):
- United States (2), 33%
- Germany (1), 25%
- Japan (4), 9%
- Brazil (7), 7%
- Canada (8), 7%
- France (3), 7%
Of the teams still alive, none have seen their chances slip considerably. Sweden, which is down to 3%, was the only country to fall off the list.
The big reason the United States is favoured over Germany is that FIFA set up the tournament so that the top-ranked German side will have to face third-ranked France in the quarterfinals if both win their opening matches of the knockout stage.
Meanwhile, the United States has a much easier path to the semifinals with a round-of-16 match against No. 28 Colombia and a quarterfinals date with either No. 16 China or No. 53 Cameroon.
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