There are just 6 teams with a legit shot to win the Women's World Cup going into the knockout stage

Now that the 16 spots in the knockout stage of the Women’s World Cup have been set, the number of teams with a realistic shot to win it all has dwindled to six, according to the latest model by Nate Silver.

The United States is the favourite with a 33% chance to win the World Cup. That’s up from their pre-tournament odds of 28%, when they were in a virtual tie with Germany. The Germans are down slightly from 27% to 25%. No other country has more than a 9% chance to lift the trophy.

When the tournament started, there were seven teams with at least a 5% chance of winning the tournament. Now there are just six (FIFA ranking in parentheses):

  • United States (2), 33%
  • Germany (1), 25%
  • Japan (4), 9%
  • Brazil (7), 7%
  • Canada (8), 7%
  • France (3), 7%

Of the teams still alive, none have seen their chances slip considerably. Sweden, which is down to 3%, was the only country to fall off the list.

The big reason the United States is favoured over Germany is that FIFA set up the tournament so that the top-ranked German side will have to face third-ranked France in the quarterfinals if both win their opening matches of the knockout stage.

Meanwhile, the United States has a much easier path to the semifinals with a round-of-16 match against No. 28 Colombia and a quarterfinals date with either No. 16 China or No. 53 Cameroon.

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