Now that the 16 spots in the knockout stage of the World Cup have been set, the number of teams that can win it all has dwindled, but only slightly according to the latest model by Nate Silver.
Brazil is still the heavy favourite with a 36% chance to win the World Cup. Their chances remain unchanged over the past week, but are still down from the beginning of the tournament when Silver’s model gave them a 45% chance of winning it all.
After the first week, there were seven teams with at least a 5% chance of winning the tournament. Now there are just six:
- Brazil, 36%
- Argentina, 17%
- Germany, 12%
- Netherlands, 10%
- France, 7%
- Colombia, 5%
Chile has slipped the farthest among the teams still alive, going from a 7% chance to win it all last week, to a 3% chance this week.
Netherlands had the biggest jump in the past week and are now given a 10% shot, up from 6%. Part of that boost is likely due to being in the easier half of the round of 16. Of the top six teams, Brazil, Germany, France, and Colombia are all on the same side of the bracket, while only Argentina is on the same side as the Dutch.
Belgium (3%) is the only other team left with a better than 1% chance. The United States is one of the teams with a 1% chance. Greece, Nigeria, and Algeria all have less than a 1% chance to lift the World Cup.
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