SocGen currency strategist Kit Juckes has the ultra-condensed guided to watching the Fed today.
In an email to clients he writes:
There are three points to the FOMC announcement and press conference. The first is that the size of the ‘tapering’ will be announced. Unless there is a shock and they delay, the actual size matters little. We expect them to finish tapering in March, in time for the unemployment rate to fall below 7%. The second is the ‘tapering isn’t tightening’ dovish commentary from Ben Bernanke. The third is the Fed Funds profile, out to 2016 that accompanies the announcement. It’s a series of dots, representing the FOMC voters’ views.
The one other thing that matters is the economic forecast that the Federal Reserve gives. How it projects the economy going forward could be seen as a proxy for its plans to keeping rates very low for a long time.
And for a fuller Fed preview, see here.
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