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On the same day the No. 1-seeded Syracuse learned that their star centre won’t play in March Madness, college basketball expert Ken Pomeroy predicted that a 16 seed will beat a 1 seed for the first time ever.Pomeroy is one of the country’s foremost college hoops experts — his Pomeroy Ratings are on par with RPI as the most popular statistical rankings in college basketball.
So he knows what he’s talking about.
Here’s his reasoning for why a 16 will beat a 1 this year:
The 16 seeds this year are historically good. Lamar, Vermont, and UNC-Asheville (Syracuse’s opponent) are three of the top six best 16 seeds EVER, according to his ratings.
Statistically, it has to happen at some point. Pomeroy points out that the odds of a #16 beating a #1 is about the same as the odds of all four #1 seeds making the Final Four. Yet 16 seeds are 0-108 all time. At some point, a 16 seed HAS to win.
So watch your back, Syracuse, Kentucky, UNC, and Michigan State.
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