June Non-Farm Payrolls Come In WEAK: Loss Of 125,000 Is Worse Than Expected

The numbers:

  • Non-farm payrolls fell 125K
  • Unemployment is at 9.5%, down from 9.7%
  • PRIVATE job creation was just over 80K, which was weak.
  • Average hourly earnings actually slipped 0.1%.

Futures are actually ticking up modestly, a sign of how much negativity had been expected.

The full data set can be found here.

See here for 12 charts on the overall state of the labour market >

Context: The market is thirsty for a good number here, following a very weak May report, and a string of consistently mediocre economic reports since then, including major stagnation in weekly claims.

A few headline numbers to look for:

  • The market is looking for a payrolls decline of about 100 to 110K owing to major cutbacks in the Census.
  • Deutsche bank expects Census cuts to hit 230K, which means private payroll GAINS need to be over 100K to compensate.
  • The unemployment rate is expected to be around 9.8%, but this number has become somewhat secondary and ignored, owing to fluctuations that result from people moving from the discouraged worker category to the actively seekers.

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