- Non-farm payrolls fell 125K
- Unemployment is at 9.5%, down from 9.7%
- PRIVATE job creation was just over 80K, which was weak.
- Average hourly earnings actually slipped 0.1%.
Futures are actually ticking up modestly, a sign of how much negativity had been expected.
Context: The market is thirsty for a good number here, following a very weak May report, and a string of consistently mediocre economic reports since then, including major stagnation in weekly claims.
A few headline numbers to look for:
- The market is looking for a payrolls decline of about 100 to 110K owing to major cutbacks in the Census.
- Deutsche bank expects Census cuts to hit 230K, which means private payroll GAINS need to be over 100K to compensate.
- The unemployment rate is expected to be around 9.8%, but this number has become somewhat secondary and ignored, owing to fluctuations that result from people moving from the discouraged worker category to the actively seekers.
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