A Mini-Monsoon Of Economic Data Is Out

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Photo: AP Images

Our mini-monsoon of data is out, and it’s a missed bag.Below we run through PPI, retail sales, and jobless claims, in each case putting the estimates first, and then the actual number in red.

June PPI: Estimate is for a decline of 0.2% vs. growth of 0.2% last month.

The actual number DOWN 0.4%, more deflationary than expected.

June PPI ex-food and energy: Estimate is for growth of 0.2%

The actual number GREW by 0.3%, so a bit hotter than expected.

Advance retail sales for June: Estimate is for -0.1% vs. -0.2% last month.

The actual number was +0.1%, so a bit better than expectations.

Retail sales less autos: Estimate is for 0.0%

Actual number 0.0%, right in line with expectations.

Retail sales less autos and gas: Estimate is for 0.4%.

This is worrisome, as it was just growth of 0.2%, weaker than expectations.

Initial jobless claims: Estimate is for 415k.

ACTUAL: It’s a BEAT at just 407K.

We’ll update here as we get it.

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