JPMorgan: Short The Dollar, Buy AAA CMBS, And Go Long Emerging Market Credit In 2010

(This guest post originally appeared at the author’s blog)

JP Morgan has been one of the more prescient banks on Wall Street in the last few years.  Not only did management steer them clear of many of the troubles the other banks were in, but their analysts have been spot-on with regards to the trading environment.  They were believers of the reflation trade before the term was even coined.  Now, they see many of the trends from 2009 continuing into 2010 and here’s how their 10 favourite ways to play it:

Our top 10 trades are:

(1) long EM equities;

(2) short USD versus EM FX;

(3) short USD versus EUR and JPY in 1H;

(4) short US agencies and MBS outright;

(5) long US HY outright;

(6) overweight US HG and EM external debt versus USTs;

(7) long EM corporate credit;

(8) overweight cyclicals within equities;

(9) long lower-tier II bank bonds outright and versus government debt;

(10) long AAA CMBS/RMBS and A-rated CLOs.

Source: JPM

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