The market keeps on making new highs and volatility is virtually non-existent.
Even a concerted effort by politicians in Washington DC to shake the market’s confidence was a total failure.
The widespread belief is that growth will continue to be mediocre, inflation will be non-existent, the Fed won’t do anything to tighten, and that asset prices will go up. Meanwhile, China will do its thing and Europe won’t collapse. So there’s just not that much to worry about.
In a note to clients, JPMorgan’s head of asset allocation, Jan Loeys explains the one big risk:
Paradoxically, low growth does not contradict higher asset prices, but is at its roots, as a weak recovery induced policy easing, which boosted asset prices. This summer’s taper-talk crisis highlights that a sudden spurt in growth is the biggest risk to asset reflation. A gentle grind up is our preferred scenario.
So if growth started happening fast, or if (presumably) inflation started taking off in the absence of decent growth, then markets would have a problem on its hands.
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