Since hitting a four-year low of $US1179 an ounce on June 28, gold has shown some strength, rallying 15% over the past month and a half to current levels around $US1360.
In a note to clients Thursday titled, “Gold and the Denver play: Gold Shrugs Off the Paulson Sale; Buy the Bounce,” JPMorgan analysts John Bridges and Anant Inani point to a number of bullish factors for the shiny yellow metal:
Gold shrugged off news today that Paulson & Co had cut its exchange listed gold exposure in half and rose 2.2% to $US1,365/oz. This may be delivering an exclamation mark to define the end of the 10-month, 25% fall in gold and 50% fall in gold equities, (while the S&P advanced 13%).
The World Gold Council reported today that physical gold demand remains strong, questioning the price weakness seen in paper markets. Additionally, gold supplies could be constrained in September if labour strikes are initiated in South Africa.
There’s typically some positive seasonality to the gold price in August/September helped by India, which is still the largest single (28%) gold market … Often this strength correlates with the Denver gold conference. The conference attracts many of the larger gold investors and given the other positives for the metal (and that the depressing effect of the Q2 results is past) we would not be surprised to see a stronger gold price in the run up to the show.
We’d encourage shorter-term investors to consider getting long the gold space with a four to five week time horizon. This year the Denver Gold Forum will be from the 22nd to 25th September.
“China and India remain large physical buyers of the metal. We believe this highlights that enthusiasm for the metal remains strong amongst the majority of the world’s population,” say Bridges and Inani. “Indian demand is quite seasonal related to events and festivals. While some might argue for less Indian buying due to tougher regulations and the weaker rupee making the metal more expensive, the WGC data suggests the opposite.”