Here comes JOLTS ...

The latest Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey is set for release at 10 a.m. ET.

Economists estimate that in December, there were 5.41 million job openings, down a bit from the 5.43 million openings reported for the prior month, according to Bloomberg.

Deutsche Bank’s Joe LaVorgna noted to clients Monday that the most important thing to watch in this report is the quits rate.

The JOLTS report is generally one of Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen’s favourite data series. But the quits rate would give us more information about the state of wage inflation, which is something the Fed is also watching quite closely.

From LaVorgna:

“In Yellen’s view, the quits rate is an indication of rising worker confidence about the labour market. This may be one reason why the quits rate has historically been a leading indicator of wage inflation. In fact, the quits rate leads the year-over-year trend in average hourly earnings (production and non-supervisory workers) by six quarters. This makes sense because presumably workers would not be quitting their jobs unless they had better income prospects elsewhere.”

He notes that with the U-3 unemployment rate at 4.9%, the Fed’s estimate of full employment, this inflation-related data is even more crucial.

We’ll have full details of the report at the top of the hour.

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