John Taylor, founder, chairman, and CEO of the world’s largest currency hedge fund, told Bloomberg TV today that a Greek exit from the euro this summer is imminent, and that he’s sticking with his bearish call on the euro.
He explained that Greece will have little choice but to default and leave the monetary union, because the rest of Europe will not make further concessions to prop up the country:
“This summer I think is very likely. The Europeans aren’t going to give them the money, the IMF’s not going to give them an OK. They will be out of money in June…
“I think people are feeling that the implications of a Greek exit aren’t so bad. And I think that Merkel is in a position where she can’t go too far to push the Greeks to stay in, or to give too much money to them.”
That said, he’s not convinced that this will be a disaster for Europe:
“I don’t think it will be absolute chaos. I think that what will happen instead of them trying to rescue the Greeks is they’re going to turn around and huddle together and say how do I help Portugal and Spain.”
However, Taylor did admit to a mea culpa for his bearish call on the euro, which has been losing him money so far. He had earlier predicted that the euro would fall to parity with the dollar.
“I’ve been wrong. There’s absolutely no doubt about it. A lot of the reason I’ve been wrong is because of the U.S. The U.S., I would argue, is determined to help the euro, not to just appreciate its currency, but to give them all the swap lines, and to push money out to keep Europe strong.”
Nonetheless, he believes that the European Central Bank should allow the currency to depreciate in order to support Spain, Italy, and Portugal.
He added that once Greece returns to the drachma he will buy them—”eventually.”
Watch Bloomberg TV’s full interview with Taylor below:
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