Photo: Jim Klinge
Despite our best efforts to explain otherwise, some bears still believe California’s housing rebound is a mirage.John Burns, a Southern California-based real estate guru, says anyone still holding onto such negative beliefs is mistaken.
In his latest note emailed to clients, Burns picks apart the naysayers’ arguments. He summarizes them as:
- “Prices will not go up due to artificially low mortgage rates.
- “Inventory will spike due to foreclosures, investors who will dump the homes they bought, and real homeowners finally putting their homes on the market.
- “The US balance sheet is a calamitous disaster waiting to happen.”
These arguments are “ludicrous,” he says, and he goes on to explain why:
- “If rates are going to go up, why not lock in a 30 year fixed rate mortgage now if you have the income and intend to live in one area for a long time?
- “If rates go up due to high inflation, won’t the replacement cost of building a home go up too, pushing the nominal cost of real estate higher? (See home prices in the early 1980s as an example.)
- “Ask anyone involved in the foreclosure process if they think distressed sales will spike, driving prices down. They don’t have the infrastructure to make this happen, even if they were mandated to do it.
- “If investors and homeowners are putting their homes on the market to profit from their investments, won’t prices be higher? If they are selling their homes because they think home prices are heading down from here, we will certainly have bigger problems than housing!
- “If a US financial crisis occurs – and I believe it will, but I cannot predict when – wouldn’t you want to own real estate (assuming you think you will be able to keep your job and pay your mortgage)?”
Burns concludes: “What happens when demand is strong, supply is low and affordability is the best in decades? Listen to the naysayers and you will miss out on one of the greatest investment opportunities in your lifetime.”
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