A week from Friday is the March Non-Farm Payrolls number, and people are starting to get excited.
It’s going to be a slightly weird day, since it’s Good Friday, and the stock market isn’t open. But we’ll have some fixed income and futures trading to gauge the reaction.
Anyway, people are looking at the early predictions and one name stands out: Deutsche Bank uber-bull Joe LaVorgna is at the top of the heap, calling for 300K new payrolls.
So what’s the big call all about?
Here’s what he said in a note that came out last week…
This morning’s initial claims data take on more significance since they cover the employment survey period for March payrolls. We are assuming claims are little changed this week relative to last week, which essentially keeps the 4-week moving average steady at 355k. This compares to a 360k 4-week moving average during the February employment survey week. February nonfarm payrolls were up 227k after +61k in upward revisions to the previous two months. Our preliminary forecast for March nonfarm payrolls is +300k, which is susceptible to revision pending today’s claims data and next month’s ADP survey, released on April 4, two days before the employment report.
So there’s not too much meat yet, but that’s the basis of the fat number.