People Are Thinking The Jobs Report Might Be Really Big

The Non-Farm Payrolls report — AKA The Jobs Report — comes out on Friday, and people are starting to get excited.

The Wall Street “consensus” estimate is in the 200K range, but optimism is building that the number could come in significantly higher.

Here’s Dan Greenhaus of BTIG (@danBTIG) relaying his talk with clients:

While the median estimate stands at 200K — up from 150K just one month ago — BTIG thinks job growth could be on the order of 225K while many with whom we’re meeting have been speaking of a much stronger snapback. If you believe, as we do, that weather was instrumental in weighing on the economy more generally, then this number should provide evidence for just such a belief. Conversations with clients suggest we’re not alone in the “possibly stronger” camp. On that front, [today’s] ADP report should be closely watched.

The data lately hasn’t been spectacular, but there’s been clear improvement in March numbers vs. the January and February numbers, which makes the Spring Snapback argument much stronger.

Just as the weather artificially depressed February and January numbers, March numbers may be artificially boosted.

Yesterday’s strong car sales for March offers a shape of what we could be talking about. Weak January and February, and then lights-out sales in March thanks to pent up demand.

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