We already mentioned why today’s jobs report is a bigger deal than normal. Go read that first if you haven’t yet.
Now let’s talk numbers, so that you have a cheat sheet.
- Analysts are expecting 185K new jobs created in March. This is down from 192K last month.
- For the private sector, the expectation is for 200K. (By implication, then, the public sector will have shed about 15K). This is down from 222K last month.
- The headline unemployment rate is expected 8.8%. This would be a slight improvement from last month, but again, this number is so based on people leaving or entering the jobs market, that nobody seems to care much about it.
- Manufacturing payrolls are expected to grow 30K.
Meanwhile, let’s go over some other numbers:
- Earlier this week we got March ADP showing 201K new private sector jobs.
- Layoffs in March were the lightest in years.
And as for internals, here’s a look at what we saw last month:
- “Real” unemployment, or U-6, which tries to measure people who are disaffected and out of the work forced stood at 15.9%.
- Average weekly earnings for the private sector were $782.15.
- The average workweek in February was flat at 34.2.
- Mean duration of unemployment grew a little bit to 37.1 weeks.