JIM ROGERS: Here’s My ‘Heads I Win, Tails You Lose’ Portfolio

Jim Rogers

Now that commodities (NYSE:DBC) are in focus, I reached out to my friend Jim Rogers to get his insights into where the commodities rally is headed.

As usual, Jim had some great nuggets of wisdom:

Damien Hoffman: Jim, what’s going on with food commodities (NYSE:DBA)?

Jim Rogers: I’ve been trying to explain to people for a long time what’s going on, but for some reason nobody listens.

Normally at this stage of the commodity bull market you would expect new capacity to be coming on stream. The problem of course is that in 2008 and 2009 everybody got hit. So, many of the people who were thinking about adding capacity have pulled back, canceled, delayed, rescheduled, etc. Fortunately or unfortunately, the supply side of the equation seems to be getting worse not better.

Previous bull markets [in commodities] have lasted 15 or 20 years. This one’s going to last at least that long if not longer.

Damien: Do you think there’s going to be a really big correction before we start another leg up?

Rogers: I have no idea. Cotton has gone up very far, very fast; but, given it was down for 30 years you might not think it’s gone up so much on any kind of compounded rate.

There are always corrections — nothing goes straight up. So, there’s nothing unusual about corrections. You can go back to any bull market and you’ll see there’s a range between the high and low for any stock during the bull market. There’s about a 40% range between the top and the bottom. That’s the same for commodities.

I have no idea when or what will cause the corrections, but I sure know they’re coming. They always have and they always will.

This post originally appeared at Wall St. Cheat Sheet.

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