Deutsche Bank economist Jim Reid has a very quick preview of what Janet Yellen is expected to say today at her Jackson Hole conference:
So what can we expect from Yellen? Our US economists expect the Fed Chair to provide us with an updated assessment on the infamous ‘Yellen dashboard’ in evaluating the ongoing labour market slack and how they have yet to normalise relative to 2002-2007 levels. Some of these alternative measures she monitors include duration of unemployment, quit rate in JOLTS data, labour force participation etc. Any sound bite that touches on the debate of cyclical versus structural drivers of labour force participation will also be closely followed. Unlike some of the previous Jackson Hole symposiums, this is likely not one that will serve as a precursor of any monetary policy changes but the tone of Yellen’s speech may still have a market impact and set the mood for busier times ahead in September. Given markets are seemingly expecting nothing but another dovish display from Yellen the risk is perhaps skewed to the other side.
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