Jessica Reif Cohen: A Consumer Recession For Next 18 Months

Don’t expect the downturn to end anytime soon. That’s the message from Merrill Lynch media analyst Jessica Reif Cohen on a panel at the Dow Jones Media & Money conference. Peter Kafka, in attendance at the wifi-free event, passes along his notes:

Last 18 months was a real estate recession. The last six months was cap ex recession. We’re now starting a consumer recession that will last at least a year.

General view is that recessions last 11, 12 months, but that’s all post-WWII. Go back past that and you’ll see they last longer. We think at least 18 months.

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