A small firm that predicted the market crash back in 1929 is back with an ominous message.
According to Bloomberg, the Jerome Levy Forecasting center sees a 65% chance of a recession in 2015.
“Clearly the direction of most of the recent global economic news suggest movement toward a 2015 downturn,” said David Levy, the chairman of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center.
Levy’s forecasts contrasts with the Wall Street consensus, which is confident growth will continue for years.
Back in 1929, Jerome Levy — grandfather of now chairman David Levy — “didn’t like what he saw in his analysis of corporate profits” and rather impressively “sold his stocks before the October crash,” reports Bloomberg.
More recently, warned that the housing bubble and proliferation of subprime debt would be responsible the last downturn.
This time around, David Levy is worried 2015 because the US is significantly involvement overseas where growth is slowing. Furthermore, he’s concerned that an unusually high proportion of disposable income is currently exposed to the stock market.
To read the full Bloomberg article, click here.