A Former BP Exec Explains Why Peak Oil Is Real [PRESENTATION]


Photo: AP

This morning, President Obama announced plans to ease restrictions on oil and gas drilling in the U.S. and off its coasts. His move comes in the wake of recent gas prices, which may now be moderating slightly.But will it be enough?

Former BP Chief Petroleum Engineer Jeremy Gilbert gave an excellent presentation on peak oil at last year’s ASPO-USA conference that responds to every argument against peak oil and emphasises the need for immediate action.

Gilbert argues that if we want to keep on this road of oil usage, we’ll need to accept the risks associated with deepwater drilling, something President Obama now seems ready to do. But even that may not be enough, as discoveries decline and supply dwindles.

Now for some harsh realities...

We don't know when peak oil is coming... we can't stop it... and we can't protect ourselves

Traditional oil production has definitely peaked -- and check out how long it's been declining in the US

Deepwater, shale oil, etc. may only delay the peak a few years

Even with gas production we're hitting a peak

We can't expect to find new oil

Now here's how people deny peak-oil: faith in discoveries, faith in technology, and misreading the numbers

Discovery optimists are striking out year after year

Although there's some hope in deepwater discoveries...

Deepwater discoveries can't fill the gap

Although new technology has allowed access to these kinds of fields...

It has not made a big difference in recovery rates

And won't have a big impact on peak timing

Finally, people forget that production rate will decline as reserves decline

Reserves lifetimes may last a while, but they will produce less and less

Since the BP spill, people should be more aware of the risks

But people don't understand peak oil

Usually as technologies mature, risks decrease -- but this isn't the case for unconventional oil production

Deep water, heavy oil and arctic oil are a Pandora's box of risk

What's the solution? A political mobilization toward efficiency and alternative energy

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