Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine just wrapped up his latest webcast about the markets and the economy called, “Fixed Income Playbook.”
Among the top items addressed by Gundlach was his view on the future of U.S. interest rates.
Gundlach highlighted a number of problems that Fed Chair Janet Yellen is likely to see in the labour market, namely the declining share of wages to GDP, the decline in the minimum wage in real terms, and the decline in inflation-adjusted hourly earnings for the bottom seven deciles of workers.
As Gundlach sees it, inflation may be subdued when you look at headline readings, but the ways that inflation is showing up in the economy is putting pressure on middle income earnings.
The housing market also remains a concern. Gundlach said the market “appears sick,” as new home sales remain flat, the price of new homes goes up while the home ownership rate declines.
Home ownership rates have returned to their long-term average, but Gundlach thinks the market is assuming that this reverts to exceeding historical norms, which he says is “illogical.”
Gundlach also gives some international context for the price of U.S. Treasury bonds, and thinks that ultimately, Scotland will not vote to be separated from the U.K.
Gundlach’s commentary is always among the sharpest and most closely watched in the market, and his full presentation is well worth going through.