The US dollar has been ripping higher.
In the last six months, the dollar index has pushed to a six-year high, and it’s at a seven-year high against the Japanese yen and a record high against the Russian ruble.
DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach, who has been on the right side of this call for months, doesn’t think the rally is over yet.
“Currency trends are long in the making and longer in playing out,” said Gundlach in an email to Business Insider on Thursday.
“Most investors challenged me when I informed them the dollar bottomed a long time ago. But look it up. The dollar is headed higher.”
In his June 10 webcast, Gundlach said, that, “I think the dollar is likely to move — break out here on the upside.”
But in making that call, Gundlach was following up on something he’d said back in 2010 and 2011, which is that the dollar, which had been in a nearly 30-year bear market, was finally reaching a bottom.
Gundlach, who was one of the few on Wall Street calling for interest rates to fall at the beginning of this year, said the strong dollar was likely a driver of this decline in interest rates.
“US interest rates are higher than European interest rates, and the currency is moving favourably,” Gundlach said in June.
“So, there’s a lot of good reasons, if you’re a European, to want to own US debt. It has higher yields and you might just continue to get a currency appreciation for a sort of double-positive reason to own it.”
Since then, being long the dollar has been the trade in global markets.
Speaking with CNBC last week, Gundlach said that while the dollar trade might be crowded, this doesn’t particularly worry him: “Sometimes the consensus is right.”
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