The latest strategy comment from Jeff Saut is below.
Gist: It’s too late to panic. That’s what you should hvae done months ago.
The call for this week: For weeks I have stated that a credit rating downgrade was a fait accompli and possibly already discounted by the markets; this morning that doesn’t seem to be the case with the pre-opening futures down ~30 points. Whatever the various markets’ near-term reaction, the fact is that everyone is merely offering their intelligent guesses as to the outcome of this historic “downgrade” event. One thing I do believe is what I wrote last week, which is likely a catalyst for the downgrade (as paraphrased):
“While I don’t embrace the Tea Party, their ‘sea change’ is palpable. Nowhere is this more apparent than the current Debt Ceiling debate. The Tea Party seems to have surfaced our nation’s ‘political corruption,’ which hinders the proliferation of prosperity. Interestingly they are not the first, for such thoughts were first scribed by Adam Smith in his book The Wealth of Nations (1776). Whether you like, or hate, the Tea Party, there is definitely a palpable change afoot that over the long-term could be extremely bullish for the economy, the stock market and our country.”
In conclusion, I leave with these thoughts from legendary investor Jim Rogers:
When asked how he made his money, Mr. Rogers answered, “I sell euphoria and buy panic.” The way he determines that is to wait until prices are “gapping” in the charts. Gapping on the upside is “euphoria,” while gapping on the downside is “panic.” Currently, gold and Treasuries are gapping on the upside; and, stocks are gapping on the downside. The implication, even though I believe gold is in a secular bull market, suggests partial positions should be sold in precious metals and the freed-up cash should be used to “buy” fundamentally sound stocks with decent dividend yields.
Obviously, the weeks ahead will determine if this is the correct strategy. All said, IMO it is too late to panic. The time to panic, and raise cash, was months ago (we did). Now it is time to selectively redeploy that cash into select equities.