This weekend, Raymond James strategist Jeff Saut appeared on Barry Ritholtz’s Masters in Business program on Bloomberg Radio.
There was a lot of knowledge dropped.
- Saut said he believes we’re currently in a cyclical bull market that could be like the one we experienced from 1982-2000.
- Saut’s father, a money manager by trade, made him read Ben Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor” at age 13.
- Saut also had a great line on markets: “The stock market doesn’t care if things are good or bad, but if things are getting better or worse.”
But the thing that really got Saut going wasn’t stocks, or the market, but the weather.
Ritholtz’s conversation with Saut was recorded in April, and so the brutal winter was still fresh on both of their minds. Ritholtz said that in his 50 years living in New York, the 2013-14 winter was the worst that he can remember, and Saut had a reason for this: volcanic ash.
“A lot of [the brutal winter had] to do not so much with global warming, but with — if you go Google it — you’ll find out there’s more volcanic ash in the atmosphere than at any point in recorded history. It started with that volcano that erupted and shut down Heathrow a couple of years ago. There’s another one next to it called Grimsvotn that’s been erupting ever since. And there’s just a big one that hit Indonesia about six weeks ago, and what that’s done is that it’s caused the Hadley cell winds to shift closer to the poles. Now, the Hadley cell winds north of the equator spin counter-clockwise, south of the equator they spin clockwise, and they carry the hot equatorial air up in to the troposphere where it moves towards the poles, normally thirty degrees north, thirty degrees south. With all the volcanic ash in the atmosphere now they have shifted and they have shifted dramatically.”
And since this interview was recorded, we’ve also seen increased volcanic activity from the Bardarbunga volcano in Iceland.
We are not sure what that all means, but Saut clearly knows his stuff — or at least sounds like it.