Comparisons between the market today and the market in 2011 continue to be very popular.
In his weekly note, John Hussman made a technical analysis argument (based on Bollinger Bands) that this was Spring 2011 all over again.
And now Raymond James’ Jeff Saut — who’s been bullish for over two years — is saying the same thing.
The call for this week: Study the enclosed chart from the good folks at Zero Hedge. There is a remarkable similarity to the divergence that took place between stock prices and U.S. Economic Data Trends in April 2011 right before the SPX shed 8%. Take that in concert with what happened to interest rates last week, a dearth of internal energy for the equity markets, a S&P 500 that is 2 standard deviations above its 50-day moving average, rumours Operation Twist is over, Chinese consternations, regulators gone wild, rising gasoline prices, massive corporate insider selling, and my sense that in the short run all of the good news is on the table, and it appears as if the easy money has been made.
That said, I still would not get too bearish because I do expect stocks to be higher by year end. Moreover, last Tuesday’s upside breakout turned out to be the first 90% Upside Day of this year meaning that 90% of total volume traded came in on the upside as did 90% of total points traded. To negate that action would require a sell-off on heavy volume that results in a closing price below the previous rally’s closing high of 1374.09 on the SPX. Still, the stock market may have enough “forereach” (a term for you nautical types) to tag 1420, but in my opinion the game’s not worth the candle.
Here’s the aforementioned chart.
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