Congratulations to Jeff Rubin, who predicted triple digit oil by the end of 2010 — he’s just a few weeks off.
The former chief economist at CIBC says this is about more than chaos in the Middle East. He points out on his blog that Brent crude was above $100 per barrel before protests erupted in Tahrir Square.
Now for his next prediction. Rubin says oil is heading to $200 unless the oil spike throws the world into recession:
When I first predicted $200 per barrel oil prices in 2008 as the chief economist of CIBC World Markets, it was in the context of expecting another four years of global economic growth. Of course, that didn’t take into account the impact of triple digit prices on fuel-dependent GDP growth. Even $147 per barrel prices brought global economic growth to a screeching halt.
It is all the more remarkable that despite triggering the world’s deepest post-war recession and a rare, albeit temporary decline in global oil consumption, oil prices had already soared back to triple digit levels even before the Arab revolt.
And it will be difficult to keep prices from moving even higher as investors start piling on the oil bandwagon, particularly when they see most of Saudi Arabia’s much touted four million a barrel a day excess capacity is largely of the fictional variety while, at the same time, noticing how little effect monetary tightening is having on restraining China’s exploding fuel demand.
Another way to look at this is recession now or recession later.