A bubble hasn’t formed in the bond market, but the bubble in shares of Apple will continue to deflate, Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of money manager DoubleLine Capital, told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Thursday.Gundlach sees a range-bound Treasury market. “On the positive side, you have rate repression by the Federal Reserve buying bonds which obviously keeps interest rates lower than they would otherwise would be,” he said. “But on the other side in the Treasury market, you have no value to speak of from an investor’s perspective.”
Although there may not be a bond bubble, with investors starved for yield, Gundlach predicts a potential bubble could form in credit risk as investors increase their leverage on riskier debt securities like junk bonds and emerging market debt.
“The next move that will start happening in the financial industry is that funds will start leveraging credit risk to a greater extent,” Gundlach said, “which will build up an overexposure potentially should the market turn against bonds later on.”
In the short-term, however, this increased leverage may actually be bullish for junk bonds, corporate bonds, emerging market debt and mortgage-backed securities as it brings higher prices and lower yields, he said.
Gundlach predicts that both high-yield bonds and a portfolio of mortgage-backed securities could return about 6 per cent in 2013. He forecast only a 3 per cent total return for 10-year Treasurys and a 5 per cent total return for the S&P 500.
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Although there may not yet be bond bubble, shares of Apple will continue to deflate. “I deeply believe Apple is headed to $425 a share,” Gundlach said. “Not because I’m a bond guy or stock guy but because I’m a market guy. I’ve been around for a long time and I know that when something goes vertical like Apple did from $425 once the bubble pops it goes back down to the point at which it lifted off.”
Falling to $425 would mean a potential 22 per cent drop in Apple shares.