The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates near 0% since December 2008 in its emergency effort to stimulate growth and inflation in the wake of the global financial crisis.
And for months, the Fed and Chair Janet Yellen have signalled explicitly that a rate hike would come soon. This has some leading economists forecasting that an initial rate hike will be announced at the Fed’s September 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
However, DoubleLine Funds’ Jeffrey Gundlach thinks that a rate hike now would be hasty.
“Look at the charts,” Gundlach said. “Dammit, Janet, don’t raise rates!”
As he’s been predicting for quite a while, Gundlach believes the Fed is more inclined to hike later than sooner.
During a webcast on Tuesday, Gundlach shared a slew of market and economic stats and trends that would argue against a rate hike in September or any time this year.
The futures market is putting a 30% probability that the Fed hikes rates on September 17. In other words, the market would be surprised by a rate hike.
The nominal GDP growth rate is actually lower today than it was in September 2012 when the Fed's monetary policy was even looser.
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