The latest monthly oil forecast from the IEA is out today, and obviously it’s the first to take into account the impact of the Japanese earthquake and ensuring nuclear crisis.
As it turns out, the situation will end up adding to global demand.
Forecast global oil product demand remains largely unchanged for both 2010 and 2011. A revision to
OECD demand, in anticipation of higher Japanese oil use for power generation and reconstruction
following the March earthquake/tsunami, has broadly offset downward adjustments to non‐OECD
demand. Global oil demand, which averaged 87.9 mb/d in 2010 (+3.4% or +2.9 mb/d year‐on‐year), is
still seen rising to 89.4 mb/d in 2011 (+1.6% or +1.4 mb/d year‐on‐year). However, preliminary
January and February data suggest that persistently high oil prices may have already started to dent
Projected OECD oil demand, unchanged for 2010, has been revised up by 90 kb/d for 2011, largely
on a reappraisal of Japanese demand for gasoil, residual fuel oil and low‐sulphur crude. Total OECD
demand, which stood at 46.1 mb/d in 2010 (+1.5% or +0.7 mb/d year‐on‐year), is forecast to remain
at a similar level in 2011. Japan’s year‐on‐year oil demand growth, now seen at 30 kb/d (versus a
contraction of 120 kb/d previously), is thus expected to effectively offset a decline in Europe.
Here’s a look at demand growth by region: