We’re just a few hours away from the Super Bowl of monthly economic data releases: The Non-Farm Payrolls report for January.
Bear in mind that despite improving economic trends, the last two reports have been total clunkers. December’s report was particularly disappointing because the ADP report was so strong.
Today the official estimate is for 146K, but due to the weather, and the fact that the numbers keep flopping, there’s a wide range of expectations. This time the ADP report was for 187K private-sector jobs.
Bear in mind too that other employment indices have been strong. The ISM was positive, as have been various regional numbers. Also, payroll tax receipts are outpacing official estimates.
In terms of market impact, it’s hard to know what an ugly (or good) report would do to stocks, but the QE3 debate is back in force, and one might surmise that a weak report would be dollar negative, as the odds of additional easing are raised.
Now, as for internals, Morgan Stanley provides a great breakdown (bear in mind that thanks to weather and muni issues, they’re more bearish than the street).
- Total jobs: 125K
- Private jobs: 125K
- Construction: -25K
- Manufacturing: +15K
- Government: -30K
- Average workweek: 34.2 (down from 34.3 in December)
- Average hourly earnings $22.80 (up from $22.78 in December)