Goldman's Top Economist Says There Are Only Two Scenarios, Bad And Very Bad

Sinking Boat

Photo: www.julienberthier.org

Right now, Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius is speaking on a panel and just told the audience there are only two economic scenarios for the U.S. right now: bad and very bad.Those scenarios are summed up as followed (via Jim Pethokoukis):

Bad: 1-2% GDP growth and an increase to 10% unemployment

Very Bad: Double-dip recession, based on Bush tax cut expiring and declining home prices

Goldman Sachs put together as presentation explaining their new bearish view on the economy, and it doesn’t make for easy reading. But if you want an understanding of the the terrible scenarios they’ve envisioned, check it out here. 

New data points to a deeper recession, and a slower recovery.

Source: Goldman Sachs via Scribd

Consumer confidence and unemployment are making the situation worse.

Source: Goldman Sachs via Scribd

Housing numbers have also come in weaker than expected.

Source: Goldman Sachs via Scribd

Some good news: No indication of a new contraction.

Source: Goldman Sachs via Scribd

The possibility of a single quarter of negative growth exists.

Source: Goldman Sachs via Scribd

Growth is expected to hit 2% for 2011.

Source: Goldman Sachs via Scribd

And now the bad case scenario has risen to 25%.

Source: Goldman Sachs via Scribd

2011's outlook is even worse, real GDP lower.

Source: Goldman Sachs via Scribd

There might be a slowing in what was an improving labour market.

Source: Goldman Sachs via Scribd

Households may raise savings as a result of uncertain environment.

Source: Goldman Sachs via Scribd

The government still isn't spending to boost the economy.

Source: Goldman Sachs via Scribd

It is all about growth in foreign markets for U.S. companies.

Source: Goldman Sachs via Scribd

Check out Goldman's Jan Hatzius second half slowdown call...

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