Why Goldman's Jan Hatzius Is More Concerned About The Unemployment Rate Than The Number Of New Jobs

Jan Hatzius

Seems like a technical point, but on Bloomberg, Goldman’s top economist Jan Hatzius says he’smore concerned about the unemployment rate than on the headline number of new jobs created.

He explains why in a note earlier this week:

During the post-WWII period, whenever the 3m average of the unrounded unemployment rate has increased by more than 35bps from a trough, the economy has either entered recession already, or will within 6 months. Currently, the three-month average rate is 9.07%, up from a recent trough of 8.90% in April. The unemployment rate would need to increase to 9.3% in July and stay there in August to trigger the 35bp threshold.

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