Two days after the aggressively bullish turnaround from Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius, this morning’s brutal jobs report came out.
In fact, he was also on Bloomberg just minutes before the report talking about the steadily improving economic data.
Now Hatzius has a note out acknowledging the disappointing data (via Zerohedge). He doesn’t see anything good:
BOTTOM LINE: A clearly disappointing report all around, with payrolls up much less than expected and the unemployment rate up. Although hours worked rose only 0.1% in November, this rough proxy for real GDP less productivity changes is tracking at roughly a 2½% annual rate. Flat wages coupled with the small increase in payrolls suggests very little wage and salary growth in November.
Hatzius is most surprised by the plunge in manufacturing and retail:
Modest upward revisions (+38k) softened the blow to some extent, but when added to the 39k increase reported for November the total number of new jobs was barely half the median 150k expectation. Increases were concentrated in business services (+53k), which includes temporary workers (+40k), education (+30k), and leisure and hospitality (+11k). One particular surprise was the loss of jobs in manufacturing (-13k); retail trade was also down (-28). Both of these sectors tend to lead the labour market; however, temps also fall into that category.
But he hasn’t explicity changed his bullish outlook. Check out Goldman’s key targets for 2011 >
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