In January of 2007, Jamie Dimon warned that an uptick in mortgage defaults might indicate a recession loomed.The chief of JPMorgan Chase was speaking to an audience gathered at the Waldorf-Astoria hotel in New York City for Citigroup’s annual financial services. Defaults were rising in the banks mortgage portfolio, Dimon said. He added that the bank was positioning itself to withstand a downturn in the economy.
It just so happens that on that very same day, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee released a very different view of the economy and the housing market.
“Recent indicators have suggested somewhat firmer economic growth, and some tentative signs of stabilisation have appeared in the housing market. Overall, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters,” the FOMC said.
Eleven months later, in December of 2007, the recession officially began. Dimon saw it coming. The Fed didn’t.
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