Back in the dark days of 2009, James Altucher of Formula Capital startled everyone by saying that the economy was improving and that stocks were gearing up for a monster run.
Altucher stuck with his story all through 2010 and 2011.
And then, at mid-2011, he doubled down.
The Dow will hit a staggering 20,000 by the end of 2012, he said.
Today, with the Dow at 13,000, Altucher reiterated that forecast. He has lengthened the time horizon somewhat—it might take until early 2013 for the Dow to hit this level, he now says—but he’s sticking to his guns.
Basically, he says, because everything’s getting better.
Of course, you can’t make a forecast like that without being excoriated as an idiot and worse, and in our interview today Altucher was quick to share one of the many hate-mails he received at the end of last year after he appeared on CNBC. And Altucher knows that he’ll get strafed for today’s appearance, too.
Why the animosity?
No one likes to hear that they might be missing out on a gold rush—especially when they’ve missed it all the way up.
So is Altucher right? Will the Dow really jump to 20,000 within a year? Seems unlikely (very), but time will tell. And it doesn’t seem any more unlikely than the forecasts Altucher has made over the past couple of years.