Pretty much everyone’s scratching their heads this morning at the jobs report. In part that’s because the two numbers — the new jobs created number and the headline unemployment number — diverged.But beyond that, there’s something amiss, and it seems safe to assume that the BLS is just not good at counting. Remember, the BLS isn’t gospel on this. It doesn’t “know” anything special. It’s just an organisation trying to make a guesstimate.
And really, the BLS is probably just wrong. Here’s why:
- The number doesn’t jibe with improving initial claims.
- The ADP numbers continue to be very strong.
- Employment components of the ISM are good.
- Employment components of the regional Fed surveys have been very good.
- The stock market doesn’t buy the labour market weakness.
- The CURRENCY market doesn’t buy that there’s going to be more easing.
- The Challenger survey is strong.
So when you have all these other indicators saying no, you just have to Occam’s Razor it and conclude that the BLS is wrong.