Statistician Nate Silver has spoke: the GOP will retake the House.
Silver made his name in the ’08 presidential election when his model gave the most accurate prediction anyone had ever seen.
Here’s what he says about November (at his new NYT-sponsored blog):
Republicans have a two-in-three chance of claiming a majority of House seats in November…
In one sense, a strong performance by the Republicans on Nov. 2 is to be expected. The opposition party typically gains seats – on average, about 20 in midterm elections since 1994 – after the other party wins the White House, as the Democrats did in 2008. Nevertheless, both the magnitude of the Republicans’ potential gains, and the rapidity with which the political balance is poised to shift back to them after two cycles in which Democrats won nearly every competitive election, is unusual by recent standards. According to the model, Republicans have about a one-in-three chance of winning at least 54 seats, their total in 1994, and nearly a one-in-four chance of gaining at least 60.
Silver’s forecast actually undershoots odds on Intrade, which suggest a 71% chance the Republicans will retake the house.
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