The Italian Poll Numbers That Everyone Is Asking About

Silvio Berlusconi Face

[credit provider=”AP”]

With Silvio Berlusconi jumping back into politics. everyone seems to have the same question.Can he win?

According to SocGen’s Michala Marcusen, it’s the top client question right now.

Here’s her answer.

The question was answered Saturday when Silvio Berlusconi confirmed that he will run for prime minister in the upcoming elections out of “a sense of responsibility”. Prime Minister Monti for his part announced he will resign once the 2013 budget is approved. With Parliament expected to approve the budget before Christmas, this makes 17 or 24 February the most likely timing for an election (earlier than the previously expected date of 10 March). The faster, the better as this will limit the period of uncertainty. Recent opinion polls give Berlusconi’s PDL party 14-18% of the vote, down significantly from the 37.4% won in the 2008 election. The centre-left PD party led by Pier Luigi Bersani is polled to win 30-38% compared to 33.2% in the 2008 election. The anti- establishment 5-star movement is set to win 15-20% of the votes according to recent polls.

So, no… he can’t.