Has The Market Determined That Berlusconi Is Toast?

This is something you don’t see very often: The Italian-German 10-year spread is shrinking! Fairly dramatically!

chart

What’s interesting is that this is happening ahead of an imminent budget/confidence vote, and it’s not clear he’s going to win.

Now usually confidence vote victories are confidence boosters for the markets, but nobody likes Berlusconi, and markets would probably feel better if he lost.

So we’re wondering: Is the narrowing of this spread a bit that Berlusconi is toast?

Anyway, the vote is at 9:30 AM ET. We’ll be covering LIVE.

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